105th Industry Sector Analysis Report, with Prometeia

The image accompanying the News on the presentation of the 105th Industrial Sector Analysis Report, with Prometeia, portrays an Asian woman and a man inside a factory, both dressed in a gray polo shirt. The man holds a piece of paper in his hand which they both look at, while he gives her some explanations. In the background, other company workers at their stations

Together with Prometeia, Intesa Sanpaolo presented the ASI (Analysis of Industrial Sectors) Report, which forecasts that in 2024 the turnover of the Italian manufacturing industry will stabilise at €1,160 billion at current prices: +€250 billion compared to 2019, closing a record post-Covid cycle. At constant prices, a moderate rebound (+0.6%) is expected, only partly recouping the losses in 2023 (-2.1%).

The contribution of the foreign channel (+2.6%) will be crucial. Domestic consumption is also on the rise: services will be the driving force, while manufactured goods will be less dynamic, with growth spurts for durable goods for mobility and stable spending on foodstuffs.

In the medium-term scenario, the Italian manufacturing industry is expected to grow at more dynamic rates in 2025-26 (+1.2% on average per year) and stabilise at around 1% in the following two years.

Investments in the double digital and environmental transition will be indispensable to support the competitiveness of Italian companies and will be favoured by the expected reduction of interest rates starting in the second half of 2024.

The ASI Report, now in its 105th edition, examines the manufacturing industry and provides scenario analyses and forecasts of growth and profitability potential for around 40 sectors, grouped into 15 categories.

Watch an interview with Gregorio De Felice (Chief Economist and Head of Research Department, Intesa Sanpaolo):

Industry Sector Analysis Highlights – May 2024

Household consumption: a comparison between Italy, Germany, France and Spain

The May 2024 ASI report takes an in-depth look at changes in household expenditure in the main European countries.

The comparison shows that Italian household consumption remains weak overall. At the end of 2023, Italy still presented a lower level of domestic consumption than in 2007 (-1.1%, again at constant prices) as competing nations posted gains: Spain (+2.3%), France (+12.6%) and Germany (+13.4%, despite the weakness of consumption in the last two years).

This phenomenon is the result of several factors. First and foremost, it is due to differences in wages and per capita income – partly structural and partly linked to successive phases of the European economic cycle – which have affected some countries more than others, the level of support provided by governments and the public services available.

Also relevant are the cultural changes in consumer purchasing preferences under way for some time, subsequently accelerated by the pandemic. The uncertainty surrounding Europe's demographic future leads us to assume downward pressure on consumer spending in the coming years. A stagnant or even shrinking population could in fact become the first of the barriers to domestic consumption growth and provide a further impetus for the shift in the composition of purchases between goods and services, in view of a progressive ageing only partly offset by the contribution of foreigners.

For Italy, the demographic future will be characterised by a significant increase in single and elderly households, which over the next 20 years will come to make up nearly 38% of households, as indicated by the most recent ISTAT demographic forecasts to 2042. At the same time, the number of couples with children is projected to decrease quite sharply, accounting for just over 25% of resident households in 2042. These changes in the structure of the resident population will also give rise to different needs, desires and purchasing behaviour.