FURNITURE AND MADE IN ITALY DESIGN IN 2025–2026: EUROPEAN LEADERSHIP AND NEW EXPORT ROUTES

• European primacy: with €26.7 billion in revenue in 2025, Italy consolidates its leadership ahead of Germany
• Export resilience: despite geopolitical uncertainties, foreign markets hold firm with record performances in Turkey (+43.5%) and Canada (+9%)
• The districts factor: production clusters generate 83% of the sector's trade surplus (€8.4 billion in total)
• 4.0 investments: Artificial Intelligence is the top priority for 2026; 16% of companies in the sector have already adopted AI solutions

Milan, 13 April 2026 – "Furniture and Made in Italy Design: challenges and opportunities in a continuously evolving market" is the title of the analysis produced by Stefania Trenti, Head of Industry & Local Economies, and Ilaria Sangalli, Head of Industry Research at Intesa Sanpaolo's Research Department. The study examines the sector's competitive positioning against a backdrop shaped by tensions in the Middle East and the potential impact on energy costs and commercial routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The study reveals a sector that not only reaffirms its European leadership with revenues exceeding €26.7 billion but also demonstrates extraordinary resilience: while its main European competitors retreat, the Italian furniture industry closes 2025 with modest growth (+0.5%), driven by dynamic exports and the strength of industrial districts, which have proven capable of rapidly redirecting flows towards emerging markets such as Turkey and Canada.

The Italian furniture sector maintains its revenue leadership in Europe

The Italian furniture sector, with an estimated €26.7 billion in revenue for 2025, confirms its firm hold on first place in the European ranking, further widening its lead over Germany, the second-largest producer with an estimated turnover of €21.7 billion. The contribution of foreign markets has been decisive, alongside a solid grip on the domestic market.

Following the surge of 2021–22, fuelled by European households' renewed focus on the home environment during the pandemic, the sector has maintained high revenue levels, recording a slight recovery in 2025 (+0.5%), while the other main European competitors declined (Germany -2.9%, Poland -0.3%, France -4.5%). Only Spain managed to grow at a faster pace than Italy (+4.7%), though it currently stands at €8.6 billion in turnover.

The trade balance remains strongly positive despite currency headwinds and uncertainty stemming from the US trade war

In 2025, Italian furniture companies maintained a substantial trade surplus of €8.4 billion, despite a slight decline in exports (-1.2%). Sales in European markets proved decisive, with Made in Italy furniture producers recording growth in Germany (+2.2%), the United Kingdom (+5%), and Spain (+1.5%), against a slight drop in France (-2.4%). Among emerging markets, noteworthy results include export growth to the United Arab Emirates (+2%) and a remarkable surge in sales to Turkey (+43.5%). The increase in sales to Canada (+9%) — which has thus entered the Top Ten destinations for Italian furniture — offset the decline in exports to the United States (-8.2%), which, while remaining the second-largest export market, were penalised by the exchange rate and the uncertainty created by the Trump administration's trade war. China ranked seventh among destinations for Italian furniture, disappointed with a -4.7% result, reflecting the country's persistent difficulties in stimulating domestic demand following the collapse of its property bubble.

Industrial districts made a decisive contribution to the sector's results, generating 83% of the 2025 trade surplus (totalling €6.9 billion) and recording greater export resilience (-0.3%, equal to €9 billion). The strong performances of the Pordenone Furniture district (+7.7%), the Murgia Upholstered Furniture district (+8.9%), the Alto Adige Wood & Furniture district (+10.1%), and the Bovolone Period Furniture district (+20.6%) offset the slight decline of the Brianza Wood & Furniture (-1.8%) and Treviso (-3.3%) districts, which nonetheless remain the leading industrial hubs by export value in 2025, thanks to their marked ability to redirect commercial flows. Specifically, the Brianza district achieved significant growth in Turkey (+23%), partly offsetting the contraction in US sales (-12%) and in some European markets (notably France, the UK, and Switzerland). Similarly, the Treviso district compensated for difficulties in France and North America with outstanding performances in Canada (+27.5%), Turkey (+35.4%), and the Netherlands (+14.9%).

This capacity for adaptation and market diversification enables district-based companies to manage challenges rapidly and play a central role in supporting the trade balance of the Made in Italy furniture sector.

The 2026 outlook in Italy and on international markets

The trajectory of the Italian economy this year will depend on the duration and scale of the conflict in Iran and the extent of damage to energy infrastructure.

Our central scenario currently assumes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz until mid-May, followed by a gradual normalisation of oil and gas production and transportation flows, and a progressive easing of energy prices in the second half of 2026, after the peaks reached in the second quarter. Under this scenario, GDP growth forecasts for 2026 stand at +0.9% for the Eurozone and +0.4% for Italy.

On the demand side, the erosion of households' real income due to inflationary pressures may dampen consumer spending, including furniture purchases, which are expected to register only a modest increase. Investment will also be affected by the new macroeconomic environment. The stimulus provided by incentives (super-depreciation) will be partially offset by constraining factors such as uncertainty and deteriorating demand conditions. The domestic furniture market is nonetheless expected to post a slight increase in 2026, supported by the real estate segment and the buoyancy of tourism — particularly at the high end, with new openings and interior refurbishments. The current climate of global uncertainty could in fact work in Italy's favour, reinforcing its appeal as an investment destination.

On the supply side, the effects of the conflict on sectors and production chains will vary according to energy intensity and exposure to Middle Eastern countries in terms of exports and procurement. In the specific case of the furniture sector, the countries affected by the Middle East conflict (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, and Iran) account for 4.6% of exports (2025), a figure above the manufacturing average — reflecting, among other things, the ability of Italian companies to position themselves as suppliers of premium products within the region's real estate development initiatives. Under the assumption of a limited conflict duration, as in our central scenario, the current shipping disruptions could be resolved, confirming Gulf markets among those offering the greatest opportunities for Made in Italy furniture in the medium term.

Regarding the impact of rising energy commodity costs, the furniture sector is not energy-intensive but may be affected by indirect cost increases for production inputs (metals, glass, plastics) and transportation, prompting companies to further step up investments in circularity and production process efficiency.

Premium positioning and design to drive market diversification

In this uncertain and complex environment, increasing market diversification will be crucial — exploring new opportunities in an ever-evolving world, shaped by rising average incomes across many countries and a new geography of trade relations opened up by European Union agreements: India, Latin America, and South-East Asia will be the new frontiers for Made in Italy design products.

Furniture companies will be able to count on their excellent quality positioning. In 2024, the Italian furniture sector's share of international markets stood at 4.1% for mid-to-low-range products and 9.2% for premium products, reaching nearly 25% in the kitchen segment.

These are outstanding results, the fruit of widespread investment in design and innovation across the Italian furniture industry, which can draw on a rich and articulated ecosystem of specialised players. Italian companies specialising in design activities confirm their European leadership, with over 76,000 employees generating more than €6 billion in revenue (in 2024, Germany ranked second with €5.4 billion).

Challenges facing the furniture industry: investment in the twin transition, workforce ageing, and generational succession at company leadership level

Managing the complexity of the current environment requires continued investment in both the energy and digital transitions. According to the findings of the periodic internal survey conducted by our Research Department (among relationship managers working with companies), Artificial Intelligence ranks first among planned investment categories for 2026, followed by Cybersecurity. Italian furniture companies have already accelerated their AI investments in recent years: according to Eurostat data, approximately 16% of companies in the sector already use at least one AI technology — a share in line with the Italian average, and with a gap relative to Germany (23%) that is smaller than that observed in other sectors.

Third among planned investments for 2026 is expenditure aimed at achieving greater energy autonomy, a theme made even more pressing in light of current tensions arising from the Israeli and US strikes on Iran.

Against this backdrop, there is also a growing orientation towards environmental sustainability. In the furniture sector, interest in ESG investment is widespread (22% of companies express a high level of interest and 48% a medium level), and is driven primarily by medium-to-large enterprises, where the share of companies with a strong interest in environmental sustainability investment rises to 29%. Significant untapped potential remains among smaller, less structured companies, which stand to benefit from the pull effect of their supply chain relationships. Strengthening competitiveness also requires sound management of generational succession at leadership level and the workforce ageing trend.

Data from ISTAT's permanent census indicate that, as of 2018, more than 70% of furniture companies had yet to complete a generational transition. Furthermore, an analysis of 3,231 companies in the sector — examining the recent composition of boards of directors (2024) — reveals that only 15.3% had at least one under-40 member on the board, a share lower than the Italian manufacturing average of 17.7%. Moreover, a significant proportion of furniture companies — 13.5%, in line with the manufacturing average — still have boards composed entirely of individuals over the age of 65.

Addressing the workforce ageing trend will also be critical: the Italian furniture industry ranks second among manufacturing sectors in terms of the proportion of workers aged between 40 and 64, at approximately 70% (up 24 percentage points since 2008), compared with a manufacturing average of 64%. This is a crucial issue for maintaining the manufacturing and craft skills on which the quality of Made in Italy fundamentally rests.

Furniture companies will be able to draw on strong financial resources to carry out their investment plans: based on estimates from a broad sample of companies in the sector, EBITDA margins remain at historically high levels, standing at 10.3% of revenues in 2024 (the most recent year for which financial statements are available). Under our scenario, moreover, despite the potential headwinds from tariffs and the additional costs induced by the conflict, profitability levels are expected to remain above pre-Covid levels throughout 2026.

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